tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-214929752024-03-14T04:40:30.312+00:00Paddy's "Letter from London"Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.comBlogger365125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-39186743188992960622018-08-24T12:51:00.002+01:002018-08-24T12:53:55.530+01:00You don't need Class War polemics to fight the scandal of restricted social mobility<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Jeremy Corbyn has been criticised for his plans to compel the BBC to publish the social class of all its employees “to ensure it properly reflected the broader population.”. Corbyn's proposal was defended on the BBC “Newsnight” programme by Owen Jones and when I tweeted that this sounded like “Class War” to me Owen vociferously objected – as he’s quite entitled to do of course. This led to a lively exchange with Owen and others on Twitter. This blog attempts to explain my accusations.<br />
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In an article in the “Times Literary Supplement” in January 1997, a few months before the return of the first Labour Government for eighteen years, Stein Ringen the Norwegian sociologist and political scientist said this:<br />
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“What is peculiar to Britain is not the reality of the class system and its continuing existence, but class psychology: the preoccupation with class, the belief in class, and the symbols of class in manners, dress and language. This thing they have with class is a sign of closed minds, and is among what is difficult for a stranger to grasp in the British mentality. Britain is a thoroughly modern society, with thoroughly archaic institutions, conventions and beliefs.”</blockquote>
Tony Blair declared in an election speech in 2001 <br />
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“Our top priority was, is and always will be education, education, education. To overcome decades of neglect and make Britain a learning society, developing the talents and raising the ambitions of all our young people”</blockquote>
The above two quotes are, of course, inextricably connected. If you believe in “Equality of Opportunity” in a society it starts with education. And education is itself a characteristic of class. And despite Blair’s ringing commitment to education can we say more than twenty years on that much has changed? Owen Jones in his polemic (his descriptor) “The Establishment” says <i>“Governments enter and leave office and yet the establishment remains in power”</i> – in other words the class structure described by Ringen remains in place along with a severely restricted “Equality of Opportunity” itself a function of a wide disparity in the quality of education in our schools and other institutions.<br />
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John Prescott declared, also in 1997, that “We are all middle class now”. He was premature. As Harry Leslie Smith put it in 2014 in “Harry’s Last Stand”:<br />
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“The middle classes are so afraid that they will that they will become as dispossessed as the poor that they have allowed the government to use austerity as a weapon against them and their comfortable way of life”</blockquote>
The subject of Class will not go away – as Stein Ringen suggests it’s an inherent element of Britishness. But does that mean that we are in a “Class War” and that we should be actively fighting on Class grounds rather than as Blair seems to have intended fighting the causes of class differences rather than indulging in a “Class Envy” driven activism?<br />
Carole Stone, ex BBC Producer, prolific writer and Managing Director of YouGovStone said in 2010:<br />
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“The people I meet certainly aren’t agonising over whether they are middle class and what that means. Class is a red herring. I have rather coarse vowels when I speak, and very occasionally in my youth I used to wonder whether people would regard me differently if I had a posher accent, but I truly believe that you are now defined by the company you keep and the sort of person you are.” </blockquote>
And in the above referenced book Owen Jones says <i>“…the Establishment is bound by shared economic interest and shared mentalities”.</i> That these shared interests are in part based on similar educational and social backgrounds must be true. But so what? Ed Conway in The Times today admits to having had a privileged upbringing at his private school and says:<br />
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“Why this fixation [on the part of Jeremy Corbyn] with classifying people on the basis not of performance or ability but on stuff their parents couldn't influence : their parents’ jobs, the education their parents chose for them?” </blockquote>
I should perhaps declare an interest here. I came from an archetypically Middle Class family and like Mr Conway I went to a Private School. We weren't fat cat rich but comfortably off and My Dad was a prototype Blairite in believing that education was important and that I would get a better one if he paid for it. Once I started work my background was entirely irrelevant and as I progressed in a business career it was certainly based on “performance or ability” and nothing else.<br />
Demographic classification is really only important if it can lead to action. It would be possible to classify BBC employees by Class - though I suspect more difficult than Corbyn and Jones think for the reasons Clare Stone (Working Class upbringing, Middle Class education and Establishment jobs) gives. But what are you going to do with the information except use it as evidence in your Class War battles? Is there to be positive discrimination at recruitment forced on the BBC – a quota system based on Social Class. This is an idea as impractical as it is daft!<br />
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I accept that the Establishment is too powerful too cliquey, too monocultural and that change is desirable. But I also believe that you should look at the root causes rather than indulge in socialist polemics. Spending cuts are one of the primary root causes – not least the introduction in England and Wales of Further Education tuition fees. The postcode lottery in education and the unaffordability for many of tertiary education is a scandal in a rich nation, which pro tem Britain still is. Healthcare is another area where divisions are inherent. Poor health in C<sub>2</sub>DE families compared with ABC<sub>1</sub> can be as much of a social mobility inhibitor as poor education. <br />
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As Patrick Diamond of the LSE points out <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-crosland-legacy-the-future-of-british-social-democracy/">here</a> Social Democratic thinker and politician Tony Crosland would have deplored <i>“…the recurrent tendency to romanticise English working-class life”.</i> The constant association by Corbyn and Co. with the past (the memorialising of Peterloo just the latest in this long saga) is largely unhelpful romantic twaddle. The current day scandal of restriced social mobility will not be resolved by referring to previous class struggles and waving red flags. It can only be challenged from a position of power which will only come from pragmatic “Art of the Possible” politics.<br />
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Slogans won’t help nor will class envy. The categorising of Social Democrats like me as “Blairite” or “Neo-Liberal” or worse is counter-productive as is the peddling of absurd delusions like a “Jobs First Brexit” – as moronic as it is oxymoronic. And finally it’s profoundly unhelpful to stigmatise people because of their social class and to indulge in petty class envy rhetoric. <br />
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Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-53541214085495057902018-08-20T08:01:00.001+01:002018-08-20T08:01:43.038+01:00Whatever the merits or demerits of Brexit there is no way the current timetable can deliver it. <div style="color: #454545; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17.4px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext"; font-size: 17.41pt;">If we start from the (a bit questionable) premise that our leaders (and our civil servants) are not stupid or malignant then the failure to conclude a credible Brexit deal can only be attributable to the fact that it cannot be done within the currently planned timescale.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext"; font-size: 17.41pt;">No member nation of the EU has ever wanted to leave before so there was no precedent guiding us.The triggering of the process by giving the Article 50 notification was not based on any realistic assessment of how long it would take. It was solely driven by domestic politics. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext"; font-size: 17.41pt;">The Article 50 notification was premature and unnecessarily so. It has meant that negotiations about the terms of Brexit have been rushed, superficial and incomplete. The probability of a “No Deal” Brexit is at least in part driven by a drive towards an artificial deadline. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext"; font-size: 17.41pt;">Part of the problem of this fatal haste has been the failure to get “buy in” even in the Conservative Party, let alone in the country at large. We are no nearer knowing the terms of Brexit and this means that everything is theoretically still up for debate. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext"; font-size: 17.41pt;">“Chequers” attempted to cut through the confusion but as a credible proposal it lasted about 24 hours. It heightened the divisions in the Conservatives - best illustrated by the departures of two of May’s three key Brexit ministers. “Shambles” doesn’t begin to describe it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext"; font-size: 17.41pt;">At the heart of this is the fact that continued membership of the Single Market is essential. The Swiss (constitutionally an Uber-Independent nation) know this as do the Norwegians. Britain would be the only significant European country outside the Single Market. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext"; font-size: 17.41pt;">But membership of the Single Market requires continued acceptance of the “Four Freedoms” - including Freedom of Movement. The “Leave” campaign revolved around two interrelated things; (1) Stopping migration of Europeans to Britain (2) “Restoring” Britain’s Sovereignty. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext"; font-size: 17.41pt;">So the U.K. negotiators cannot do a deal that gives us a “Norway” type arrangement and the Single Market, despite being essential, is not on offer. Theoretically membership of the “Customs Union” could still be negotiated, but this would be hugely complex and take time. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext"; font-size: 17.41pt;">Whilst the higher level arrangements as to how the U.K. would operate outside the Single Market and the Customs Union (including how this would work in the island of Ireland) remain unsettled and unclear at the lower level the same largely applies. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext"; font-size: 17.41pt;">The terms of UK’s trade with its 27 EU partner countries is covered by the EU Treaties of which it is a signatory. This would lapse and separate arrangements would have to be negotiated with all of them. This has not even started yet. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext"; font-size: 17.41pt;">And Britain would also give up the established trade arrangements with over 50 non EU countries that it enjoys as a result of negotiations that have been concluded between them and the EU.That’s another fifty deals that would have to be done and where the work hasn’t begun. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext"; font-size: 17.41pt;">All the above surely has to mean that aside from the continuing debate about the merits of Brexit the current timetable is wholly unrealistic and to stick with it would cause chaos. Article 50 has to be withdrawn, or at least indefinitely extended. </span></div>
Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-10516435429333958992018-07-05T17:33:00.001+01:002018-07-05T17:33:19.255+01:00Don’t blame Theresa May - Delivering Brexit would defy any democratic politician<br />
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Theresa May’s Government looks unlikely to survive and her political career will end in abject failure. But in a way it’s wrong to blame her for this. True she’s brought the igmony on herself with her facile “Brexit means Brexit” sloganising and her equally simplistic “Will of the People” mantra. But could any other politician have done any better? It’s highly unlikely. At the highest level of abstraction the problem is that <b>Br</b><b>exit makes no sense. </b><br />
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Brexit’s advocates were, and are, at best xenophobic charlatans and at worst racist idiots. The second group, effective though they were, we can safely now ignore. For a brief but hugely damaging period in our nation’s history Nigel Farage and his gruesome bunch of supporters and fellow travellers held sufficient sway to influence the EU Referendum outcome. Much as we may regret it the truth is these bastards won. But they have largely disappeared and their pathetic parody of a political party, UKIP, has faded away. But the xenophobic charlatans are still with us dominating not just the Conservative Party and the Cabinet but the leadership of the Labour Party as well.<br />
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Brexit is an isolationist and English nationalist proposition based on the idea, once so perfectly parodied by Flanders and Swann, that “The English are Best”. This is what “Sovereignty” means. The charlatans argue that it matters more where a decision is taken than whether it is the right decision. So Brussels bad, Westminster good. But as Westminster (both Houses of Parliament) has been doing its job (being traitorous in Brexit speak) then the proposition has changed. Now Sovereignty seems to mean giving the Prime Minister Carte Blanche to do what she likes. It’s not just those of us opposed to Brexit who don’t accept that.<br />
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Brexit is unachievable in anything like the foreseeable future because of its complexity. Of course Britain <b>can</b> leave the European Union. But to unravel forty years of trading arrangements, regulations, laws and legal processes, Customs deals etc. etc. would take maybe a decade or more. And increasingly it is becoming obvious, if it wasn’t before, that to undertake this would be utterly pointless. Certainly to try and do it just because our so-called “Sovereignty” would be marginally enhanced would be insane. The maddest ever example of a nation cutting off its nose to spite its face.<br />
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The truth is that the sovereignty of the 28 EU members is largely unaffected by EU membership and the benefits of the pooled Sovereignty we all have as members far exceeds any marginal loss of control of our own affairs. This fact was poorly explained in the Referendum and is little understood today. We need urgently to pause and reconsider what is in the national interest. It’s not too late. And it’s essential.<br />
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<br />Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-24874318203613472182018-06-04T09:05:00.000+01:002018-06-04T09:07:21.343+01:00Why Brexit is stalled - will the Civil Service save Britain from disaster?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: "uictfonttextstyletallbody"; font-size: 17px;">Two years on and Brexit is stalled. By the time we reach the theoretical departure from the EU date of 29th March 2019, determined by the precipitate triggering of Article 50, there is no possibility that a proper deal will have been negotiated. In what continue to be febrile times we just cannot trust our politicians to act responsibly on our behalf. Brexit has become a political football - used only to secure personal or party advantage. The hard core logic is lost in all this noise. There is no meaningful debate. The media is as polarised as the politicians. And so in these times </span><span style="font-family: "uictfonttextstyletallbody"; font-size: 17px;">you have to look to the Civil Service. This comprises our brightest and best. They have experience and intellect and, above all, an understanding of what is possible. And what is not. And they also have a public duty - to do what is right for Britain. <span style="color: red;"><b>They know that what the Government wants is impossible. Not difficult. Impossible. </b></span>UK can of course leave the European Union. That has never been in doubt. But what cannot be achieved is a half way house somewhere between Full membership and non membership. A “Norway” type outcome, if you like. The reason is simple. “Norway” requires acceptance of Freedom of Movement (FoM). And that is one thing Theresa May and her gang (or Jeremy Corbyn and his for that matter) can never accept. The EURef outcome was primarily driven by a wish to stop EU27 citizen “migration” to the UK. Not concerns about “Sovereignty” , which most voters would struggle to define. Immigration (aka Freedom of Movement ). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "uictfonttextstyletallbody"; font-size: 17px;">So the “negotiations” are so much nonsense. If you go to the table ruling out FoM there’s not much to negotiate. Maybe membership of the Customs Union, though without membership of the Single Market this looks pretty useless.<b><span style="color: red;"> No - the only Brexit available is a Hard Brexit ( no deal)</span></b>. Which brings us back to the Civil Servants. They know that to leave the EU without a deal cannot be in the national interest. It isn’t “right for Britain”. They are clearly telling the Government that reality. Hence the cleft stick that Theresa May is in. She has three options. (1) Stop Brexit . (2) Cling on to the delusion that a Soft Brexit is possible (a delaying mechanism) . (3) Accept Hard Brexit and risk defeat in Parliament and/or the country.</span>Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-11595196838440607762018-04-21T13:47:00.004+01:002018-04-21T13:47:52.545+01:00The Tories are blaming the Home Office. But it’s they that carry the blame:The Tories are blaming the Home Office. But it’s they that carry the
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<br /><br />Harry Truman famously had a sign on his presidential desk saying
“The Buck Stops here” - as in a democracy it usually does. Not on the desks of
the Sir Humphreys but of their political masters. Did the Civil Service warn
Home Secretary May or Prime Minister Cameron that their determination to
undercut the UKIP threat with knee-jerk, ignorant and racist legislation might
not be a good idea? Maybe they didn’t, and as such they abrogated their mandarin
duties. Poor, but not the real issue. <br /><br />The real issue of course is the
legislation which as ever was initiated by government. Dave and Co. were worried
by the rise of UKIP. Many in the Tory ranks argued for a formal alliance with
the Kippers (remember that Toby Young ?). Others argued that the only way to
counter Farage was to steal his clothes. EU Referendum ? Of course. Tighten
Immigration! Naturellment. <br /><br />The immigration policy was win-win. The focus
groups said is was Numero Uno as a concern of the Great British Public. And
ILLEGAL immigration (Aaaargh) - what’s not to hate ? <br /><br />So the 2014 Act was
to curb ILLEGAL immigration. Nobody could argue with that surely. And Ed
Miliband’s Labour didn’t. Their focus groups told them the same thing as the
Conservatives’. The Great British Public don’t like immigrants much and illegal
immigrants are pariahs. Chuck ‘em out. Right!<br /><br />So what’s an illegal
immigrant? Easy innit? Some dude who’s living here without papers which show he
has the right to do so. Round ‘em up. Ship ‘em out. Easy one. Except that the
educated middle class metropolitan elite didn’t know some people didn’t have
passports. (My God how do they get into Tuscany in the summer hols?).<br /><br />If
you have a passport your nationality with its right of residence in the U.K. is
documented. But if you’ve never needed to get one - even though you’ve been
here 40 years or more since you came as a child? Well you ain’t got no papers
sunshine. And we know what no papers means. You’re an illegal Sambo - away with
you.<br /><br />And here’s the rub. Government failed to understand and the Home
Office failed to advise them that these paperless Brits were not illegal
immigrants by any logical use of the term. They were Brits with a paperwork
problem. Not quite the same!<br /><br />That’s the be all and end all of it. Cockup
not conspiracy. Bad policy and legislation within which a major anomaly
existed. Failed challenge (except by a few MPs like Jeremy Corbyn, Caroline
Lucas and David Lammy). And a Home Office which either didn’t know (Aargh) or
did Know and kept quiet.<br />Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-84281382624836927692018-02-24T13:55:00.004+00:002018-02-24T13:55:56.911+00:00The Myth of Sovereignty The reasons people gave for voting “Leave” in the EU Referendum fall broadly into two categories - though they overlap and both can be characterised under the slogan “Take Back Control”. The clinching argument which gave “Leave” their narrow victory was concerns about “Immigration”. The other argument - the one given by the more sophisticated Brexiteers - was about “Sovereignty”. Those who personally voted “Leave” , giving “Sovereignty ” as the reason, also tend to deny that immigration concerns were the principal reason “Leave” won. They are squeamish about associating themselves with a position which could be borderline racist, Islamaphobic or xenophobic and for which the main proponents were UKIP and its even further to the Right fellow travellers. In particular the Leave.co.uk campaign led by Nigel Farage, Arron Banks and Kate Hoey. There is a strong dose of disingenuousness about all this. Some of the Conservative “Leave” campaigners jumped on the “Turkey is joining the EU” meme - including the new Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt. The “Official” “Leave” campaign ran an advertising campaign saying this. It was, of course, a barely coded message about immigration, especially Muslim immigration. At least the advertising of Banks, Farage and co. was more open about its “Don’t open the floodgates to more migrants” pitch.<br />
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“Take Back Control” was often linked to “our borders”. Essentially a positioning which says that “Freedom of Movement” - one of the “Four Freedoms” essential to the EU’s “Single Market” - meant that anyone from 30 countries (not just EU countries) could come and live and work in Britain as a right. And when here they would be treated as a British citizen in respect of (say) healthcare or welfare. The “Take Back Control” slogan and all its surrounding rhetoric implied that FoM is a bad thing and we should have full control of our borders again and not have who enters Britain decided but Brussels. In fact studies show that the presence of European nationals is strongly net positive to the UK economy. But such truths were casualties in the febrile and often squalid times of the Referendum.<br />
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A Sovereign nation certainly controls its border itself unlike the 28 countries of the European Union, along with Switzerland, Norway and Iceland which are open to citizens from across the continent. But it is surely the case that the 27+3 nations that will continue to be open if Britain leaves have made a conscious decision to do so. In effect they have pooled their Sovereignty on this matter. And for good reason. The Single Market offers huge mutual benefits and the freedom of movement of two factors of production - Labour and Capital - is an integral part of this.<br />
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Those who voted “Leave” citing “Sovereignty” no doubt had control of borders as one of the reasons but, they argue, it goes beyond that. “Isn’t it better that Britain takes its own decisions rather than having slavishly to follow the same path as 27 other countries?” There is a strong nationalistic element to this reminiscent of Flanders and Swann’s “The English, the English, the English are best - I wouldn’t give tuppence for all of the rest”. In essence where a decision needs to be made and who makes it is more important than the quality of the decision - or so this implies.<br />
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Rationally in most cases it really doesn’t matter where a decision is taken or who takes it so long as we perceive the outcome as being beneficial to us. To me two of the most important developments of the past decade or so were taken thousands of miles from Britain’s shores. Amazon and Apple launched products and service which literally changed my life. To be able to buy virtually anything online from Amazon at a fair price and have it swiftly delivered to my home is a boon. And to be able to make this purchase lying on a hotel bed (as I am now) using my iPad? Well ! Exactly the same applies to political decisions. If the European Parliament approves a regulation that benefits me does it matter that it was taken in Brussels rather than Westminster. Of course not. In a global, interdependent world the best decisions on crucial matters are better taken cooperatively. The English are not necessarily best.<br />
The EU recognises that local matters should be resolved locally. “Subsidiarity” is a key EU principle. The idea that you take decisions at the lowest level practical is inherent in how the EU works - far more so than in England where (unlike Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) we have few political institutions below Westminster to devolve decision-making to.<br />
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The other benefit of joint sovereignty in certain areas is that there are more checks and balances .and greater pooling of experiences. If the EU proposes a new regulation there are 28 nations to consider it from their own experiences. If the British Government proposes a new law no such checks exist. It may take longer at an EU level, but any significant new regulation will have been considered from a broad not narrow perspective.<br />
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The mention of Amazon and Apple - and I could have chosen a hundred or more examples - was just to illustrate that 21st Century life is complex and major influences on our lives come from people or organisations we only engage with indirectly. This may seem a statement of the obvious - it is - but this fact is at the heart of any discussion about “Sovereignty” , or should be. At a basic level many of us would like the maximum of control over our own lives. It is possible to do this - perhaps by moving away from the complexities of modern living to some cottage in the country, growing our own vegetables and making our own entertainment. Even if we do that we cannot truly escape. We still have to pay our taxes and fulfil some bare minimum citizen obligations. The world is always with us.<br />
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In modern history some of the greatest horrors come from when peoples , or specific groups of people, are forced to do something against their will. Ethnic cleansing. Fleeing war or a natural catastrophe. It is natural to want to choose what we do and when we cannot do that for whatever reason we are aggrieved. And in a democracy it is likely that legitimate governments will pass laws that some citizens will object to. Here the concept of the “greater good” applies. You won’t please all the people all the time but so long as a particular law or regulation benefits significantly more people than those who object to it it’s probably worthwhile. So long as the democratic process was fair and followed and the consequences properly managed.<br />
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Which brings us back to the decision-making process in governance. Can we accept that in principle it really doesn’t matter who takes a decision or where it is taken - only whether it was a quality decision? Are lower level decisions always better than higher level ones or does there need to be a pragmatism which accepts remote decision-making if the outcomes are desirable? I think the answer is obvious. Major social, economic environmental and other changes can only really be taken at a high level. You couldn’t have had London boroughs opting out of the “Clean Air Act” at will. There had to be a decision at a much higher level of Government if the fogs and smogs of 1950s London were to be eradicated. Which they were.<br />
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Politics has always been in part about the struggle between freedom and compulsion those polarising goals of the Right and the Left. The battleground is at the heart of political discourse. The gut cry “Too much regulation stifles our freedoms” is not a modern idea. In power parties of whatever political persuasion will always have to consider whether more or less regulation is desirable - there is rarely a credible ideological answer (or even guideline) to help resolve these questions. That regulation has generally increased in the post war decades is broadly true. This is in part a response to lifestyle changes and in part a consequence of having a better understanding of science. The “Clean Air Act” was necessary because people were dying prematurely and unnecessarily from pollution. The heavy regulations applied to smoking and tobacco were the same. Public health was the driver.<br />
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As citizens our first obligation is to obey the law. Even if we disagree with it. The “greater good” argument should persuade us if we take our citizenship seriously. But how the law should operate and what new laws should apply (or existing laws be relaxed or changed) can be contentious. Perceived fairness is crucial - are those to whom a new law will apply being treated “fairly” ? If we are non smokers we probably don’t care that much about tobacco duty increases. But, I would argue, we should care that smokers are being treated fairly - smoking is a legal pursuit. We accept discriminations across society that are for the “greater good”. The banning of smoking in public places was certainly discriminatory - but few or any would now argue that it was the wrong thing to do. My 40-a-day mother would be astonished if she was here. But she isn’t. She died prematurely of cancer in 1978.<br />
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Modern life is not only complex but we also live in a world of far greater interdependence than even our closest forefathers. “No man is an island entire in itself” wrote John Donne 300 years ago but the apotheosis of this appeared in the twentieth century and has grown exponentially. Even an island race is no more entire in itself, and certainly not one as large and diverse as Britain. The primary context in which we live and work is now a global one and, especially, European. The British economy is inextricably part of the greater European one. The drivers are freedoms that we and fellow Europeans have created for our mutual benefit. Crucially three of Adam Smith’s four “Factors of Production” can and do move freely across the 28 countries. Labour, Capital and Enterprise move according to classic economic supply/demand drivers. A Greek Bank can invest in a Swedish car plant without restriction if its sees a good return. A Swedish student can study in Athens. A Greek Doctor can work in Britain's National Health Service. And so on tens of thousands of times over.<br />
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Change can be stressful and some manage it better than others. Whilst Britain is certainly not a closed society it can be insular – more so, perhaps, than those among our fellow European nations with contiguous borders. The joy of driving across national borders without the need to stop for any customs or other checks has been a part of mainland Europe for decades. They don’t talk about “going abroad” - that concept doesn’t exist. That doesn’t mean that going from (say) Germany to France isn’t noticed. Of course not. The distinctive cultures of the two countries is enjoyed, even celebrated but moving between them is no big deal. But those 21 miles of sea between Britain and “Europe” though no longer any sort of physical barrier thanks to the Tunnel are still a psychological barrier. We do go “abroad”.<br />
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The biggest divide in Britain is not North/South or even Class – it is between those who see nationality as horizontal – and those who see it as vertical and hierarchical. The latter group were the ones satirised by Flanders and Swann. They are often older, less educated and far less travelled. They see nationalities as having a hierarchy with Britain at the top. They often put Anglophone Countries next - indeed many of the Eurosceptics who became Brexiteers are supporters of the mythical “Anglosphere” a concept not acknowledged by anyone in the countries like Australia or New Zealand who the Eurosceptics say would be part of it. It’s all bunkum. Those of us who see nationality as horizontal don’t deny differences of culture and behaviour – we just don’t think British culture and the way we behave are better than those who are different.<br />
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So “Sovereignty” or “taking back control” is a consequence not of logic but of bias. The idea that decisions that Britain takes on her own are likely to be “better” than those taken co-jointly with others is based on the same highly questionable ideological slant that sees nationality as vertical and hierarchical. It conflicts with the adages like “Two heads are better than one “ or “A problem shared is a problem halved”. It is proudly individualistic , even nationalistic, rather than collegiate and trans-national.<br />
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What we are dealing with in the “Sovereignty” question is not empirical. You cannot “prove” that “taking back control” will produce better outcomes (or that the opposite will for that matter). The issue amounts to this. Should Britain really become the only country in Europe outside the EU and it’s close associates like Norway and Switzerland in the Single Market because of some highly spurious claim that we need to “restore our Sovereignty”. Can we really be that foolish?<br />
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<br />Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-46927372474028740812018-01-02T17:48:00.002+00:002022-02-07T18:15:14.160+00:00Cut the ideology – let’s design a passenger driven Railway system.Tap here to start composing...<br>Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-416490606571540472017-10-01T09:33:00.001+01:002017-10-01T09:38:40.117+01:00"Solutions of Hard Left or Hard Right or of "Glorious Isolation" won't work in 2017. <div>
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It's 2017. Whatever policies any Government introduces have to reflect the realities of today. They did indeed do things differently in the foreign country that is the past. But to "return" to that past is not just impractical - it is as impossible as it is undesirable. That's why Brexit will eventually collapse - forced away by the sheer illogicality of trying to apply 1950s solutions to 21st Century realities. In an interdependent world you cannot retreat to the isolation of the past. In a post Imperial world you cannot go back to times when Britain ruled the Waves. And in a modern world of mixed economies and the advanced welfare state you cannot go back to the applied ideological socialism of Attlee let alone to some wistful Marxism. Nor can the ideologies of laisser-faire be universally applied either. Thatcherism is just as impractical in 2017 as is the Clause Four socialism of the post war years.</div>
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The mixed economy which is the only game in town for a modern European state (and most others around the world) has its flexibilities. Judgments need to be made about what the State does, and what is left to the private sector. And judgements need to be made about regulation and accountability as well. But the interdependence of nations requires that decision-making is substantially at a trans-national level. The co-operation that this requires brings ancillary benefits with it - "Jaw Jaw" means the avoidance of "War War" , a not inconsiderable advantage of partnership. And, yes, there is some surrendering of national sovereignty. But that has already happened to a significant degree with the growth of the multinational corporation and with the movement of manufacturing to the East. Decisions are made which fundamentally affect us in corporate boardrooms and in Beijing and Seoul and Manila and it is only in partnership at a European level that we have the power to influence these decisions. </div>
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Finally the complexities of international finance also mean that neither neo-Marxism nor neo-Thatcherism is practical for Britain in 2017. The financial services sectors - especially banking in its various forms - are transnational and this cannot be rolled back, nor will it be. The Banks are not the pariahs that some on the Left say they are - but nor can they be allowed unregulated freedoms as the events of the global Financial crisis of ten years ago showed us. Again only with institutionalised cooperation and supervision can the finance sector be responsible to us all - no country is an island in this and it is preposterous to argue that a Britain alone would cope better than a Britain that continues to be part of the European Union.</div>
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The speakers at the rostrums of the Party conferences can continue to spout ideological "solutions" based on their favoured ideologies of Left and Right. They may relish the applause. But as Theresa May is finding, and as Jeremy Corbyn would soon find, reality kicks in. The slogan that actually means something is "Better Together" because in fact it is more than a slogan. It's a non-negotiable reality. </div>
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Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-5350617459988763812017-04-20T22:23:00.001+01:002017-04-21T14:28:11.600+01:00Ian Kershaw's "Hitler" - have we heeded the "warning from history"?<div style="color: rgb(69 , 69 , 69); font-family: ".sf ui text"; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";">Ian Kershaw's "Hitler" is probably the longest book I have ever read. Spread across two volumes and in excess of 700,000 words it covers the life In meticulous detail. And yet never for one moment does it drag. To describe such a book on such a subject as a "page turner" may seem odd. But there are quite frequent moments when a sense of disbelief cuts in and you inwardly say "Surely not?". And you turn the page to see if it is true. It always is. As with most lives there is chance mingled with ambition and design. Hitler nearly died as a child. He could have lost his life in the Great War. His personal ambition could have been - should have been - stifled long before he gained supreme power. Nothing in his early life qualified him for, or pointed him to, his leadership of one of Europe's most cultured and sophisticated nations. And yet it happened. Nothing in Hitler's character and personality suggested that he would be revered and followed in a messianic way. And yet he was. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";">All lives, certainly politically significant ones, have to be seen in the context of their times. Of the many human tragedies that resulted from the Wall Street Crash of 1929 nothing was greater than its precipitation of the rise to power of Adolf Hitler. Prior to the Crash Germany, if not prospering, was at least strongly recovering from the nadir of the post war years. The hyper-inflation was gone. Employment was increasing. Democracy seemed (for the first time in the still young country's history) solid and coalition meant that governance was comparatively stable in the Weimar Republic. These were not conditions in which the political extremes would benefit. Hitler's Nazi Party lingered at well below 10% in most elections and its threat, real a few years earlier, seemed to have subsided. The Communists were equally marginalised. But the Crash changed all that. Hitler polarised opinion but his eventual rise to power had two drivers. First the feeling that conventional politics had failed and something new should be tried. Secondly the view held by many that the real threat was Bolshevism and its local arm the German Communist Party (KPD). Hitler was fervently anti-Bolshevik and this combined with the novelty and promise of his pitch was to propel him to power.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";">Kershaw's meticulous research means that there is surely little of significance to learn about Hitler that he hasn't revealed. Before he entered politics in the 1920s Hitler had achieved nothing. He had a minor talent as an artist but insufficient for him to enter Art School. He was a drifter without profession or qualification before the Great War. Decommissioned from the Army in 1919 at the age of 30 (with an Iron Cross for bravery in action) he gradually become involved in politics and started to form his personal political credo. This was strongly nationalistic, violently anti-Semitic and strongly opposed to Bolshevism. His personal testament "</span><span style="font-family: ".sfuitext-italic"; font-style: italic;">Mein Kampf</span><span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";"> " - written when he was in prison for leading an incompetent coup in Bavaria - is an extended rant within which these themes dominate in an almost paranoid, certainly obsessive, way.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";">Kershaw shows that there were four main factors in Hitler's rise to power. The propitious (for his message) economic circumstances of 1929 and the next few years. The scapegoating - blaming identified targets for Germany's problems. The immense power of Hitler's oratory. And the chilling, but technically brilliant use of propaganda. The "Hitler myth" was created by the speeches and the staging. There was no precedent for such events as the Nuremberg Rallies in modern history and yet, bizarre though they were, they were effective in building the "Hitler brand". The brand had all the classic elements that those of us familiar with brand management will recognise. Powerful imagery, clear messages (the "brand promise"), a "benefit" offer, slogans, and an effective delivery vehicle (Hitler himself). Brands will, however, only prosper if they deliver the benefits they have promised. In his early years in power Hitler delivered. The peaceful retaking of the Rhineland in 1936 was popular as evidence of Germany's nationalist reemergence after the humiliation of Versailles. And these years (up to the outbreak of war in 1939) also saw economic recovery driven by public sector spending on infrastructure and above all the military. Unemployment virtually disappeared. In parallel with this "progress" went the tightening of totalitarian control and the grotesque victimisation of minorities - especially the Jews. When "</span><span style="font-family: ".sfuitext-italic"; font-style: italic;">Reichskristallnacht</span><span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";">" happened in 1938 - an event unthinkable in a democratic state - it was just part of a sequence of increasing institutionalised victimisation and anti-semitism. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";">Dictators - and by 1936 Adolf Hitler had become one - cannot rule alone. That he was uniquely evil is arguable - though Kershaw doesn't argue it. Instead this comprehensive biography details how the dictatorial powers he assumed were supported by an entourage and a system which, if not as venal as Hitler himself, was absolutely complicit in implementing his schemes and sustaining him in power. Not only that. The German people as a whole supported the Führer. I say "as a whole" to emphasise that there was resistance - increasingly brave as opponents were eventually simply wiped out of forced away. But in the main Hitler had high levels of popular support. This reached its apogee with the military successes of the first year or two of the War but Hitler's hold on power had been largely unchallenged from the mid 1930s onwards. Crucial to this was the closeness of a few at the top of the Nazi Party. Goebbels, Himmler, Bormann, Goering,Hess, Speer and the rest provided the support but also the implementation. As did the Army leaders - at least at first from the defeat of Poland, France, Belgium and the rest in the early war years. The scope and scale of the Nazi tyranny was such that a massive infrastructure had to be created to apply it. At all levels - from the regional Gauleiters to the lowly concentration camp guards there had to be compliance and a willingness to implement. And there was. Himmler and co. oversaw all this and Hitler rarely involved himself in the detail. There was also the phenomenon that Kershaw calls 'Working Towards the Führer" the premise of which is that there was a sort of assumed authority and delegation which came from those at all levels taking actions which they knew or assumed Hitler would approve of - even if they actually had no authority or orders to do so. Chillingly the euthanasia of those with mental illness or other handicaps was an example of this - as was much of the detail of the Holocaust.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";">This is a huge biography but Hitler's personal life remains obscure. His relationships with women, even with Eva Braun, are sketchy largely I think because there is insufficient evidence to draw upon. Some have alleged a homosexual period in Hitler's life but Kershaw does not address this - largely I suspect because there is absolutely no evidence to support it. The personality causes of Hitler's malignancy are also hard to fathom. Was he "mad"? Well by any rational definition of the word the answer is surely that he was? But in fact from a purely clinical and psychoanalytical perspective there is little to support this. And if he was mad were all of those at all levels who implemented his policies mad as well? Obviously not.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";">With his armies poised to invade Britain in late 1940 Hitler stood on the brink of absolute domination of Western Europe. The military achievement both in its scope and swiftness of results had been extraordinary. Germany clearly had very good Generals and an effective Army. Hitler held back. Kershaw describes clearly how in power Hitler had not wanted conflict with "England" as he called it. Munich was part of this - there was a genuine wish to keep Britain neutral. Hitler admired Britain's Empire - not least because it gave her the "Lebensraum" (essentially geographical territory) which he believed Germany lacked. Hitler's war aims were primarily about lebensraum - along with the determination to break Bolshevism which was, of course, to lead to the invasion of the Soviet Union. With hindsight from the moment that Hitler moved his armies into Russia, the Ukraine and the other soviet republics the war was over. It did not seem so at the time - least of all to Hitler. Once the war started slowly to turn against Germany Hitler turned against his Generals and against Goering whose Luftwaffe he saw as having let him down. The armed forces fought tenaciously and with courage on two fronts. On the Western front, after D-Day, it was only a matter of time - especially with the Americans in the front line. Hitler became increasingly delusional certain that the Allies would start squabbling among themselves, that his new weapons (V1 and V2) would swing the war back his way and that he could still win what had become "Total War". Kershaw focuses in some detail about the breakdown in relations between Hitler and the Generals - something that became more apparent to him after the unsuccessful attempt on his life in 1944 which was led by disaffected Army officers. The horrors of the Eastern Front were such that it was quite clear, had it not been before, that Hitler had a complete disregard for the value of human life. His armies became as much cannon fodder as the German forces had been towards the end of the Great War - ironically because it was in part Hitler's memory of that conflict which drove him on ever after to restore Germany's reputation. National pride was a key driver of all that he did.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";">The Holocaust is covered with restraint but Ian Kershaw shows its roots in Hitler's malign philosophy and describes how anti-semitism, along with anti-Bolshevism, drove everything that he did. There is an incrementalism to this story which is chilling - not least because we know what it was eventually to lead to. As we have seen Hitler was not hands-on in the detail but of course he knew what was going on and had inspired it. Kershaw made a famous television series about the Nazis called "The Nazis: A Warning from History" and he addresses the same aspect of "warning" in the biography - though without at any time moving away from a strict fact-based interpretation of what happened. The facts are enough. That thousands of ordinary Germans were willing to take part in unparalleled acts of barbarism - and in genocide (and that the military/industrial complex that was the Third Reich functioned to make this possible) is truly frightening. That is the </span><span style="font-family: ".sfuitext-italic"; font-style: italic;">warning</span><span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";">. It is true that in a dictatorship the rule of fear is ever present - people do what they do to survive. "Obeying orders" and keeping their heads down and looking the other way. But it is clear that the majority of the population were complicit (or if not that unwilling to challenge) because they chose to be. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";">The compliant population lasted until the War turned against Hitler by which time it was too late. Today we call the phenomenon of ordinary people accepting things that might previously have been anathema to them as "Normalisation". At its most trivial this is the "Well he got the trains to run on time" syndrome where we surrender our previously held assumptions as to what is acceptable behaviour in our leaders because key aspects of life (employment, availability of food and shelter, security) are delivered where they were absent or under threat before. As we have seen Hitler initially delivered. How he did it is subservient to the fact that he did. Ian Kershaw has described it as follows: </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";">"</span><span style="font-family: ".sfuitext-italic"; font-style: italic;">Dictatorship emerges where an individual or clique takes over power, usually at a time of crisis, on behalf of and often with the support of the people, and substitutes personal authority for the rule of law"</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";">So the most important "warning from history" is not to normalise - not to accept that the means justify the ends. Or at least to be wary if the "means" seem inconsistent with our previously established norms. There is no such thing as a "benevolent dictatorship" when the Dictator - Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Franco - replaces an elective democracy with a totalitarian exercise of power. History teaches us that the "benevolence" doesn't last long. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext-bold"; font-weight: bold;">Have we all learned from the warning that the Hitler years gave us?</span></div>
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<div style="color: rgb(69 , 69 , 69); font-family: ".sf ui text"; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px; line-height: normal; font-family: '.SF UI Text';"><span style="font-family: '.SFUIText';">In the 21st Century we may argue that the lessons of Germany in the Hitler years have been learned, that the post-war checks and balances are such that we have taken note of history's "warning". It would be naive and dangerous to assume that this is the case. President Erdogan of Turkey and President Putin of Russia are both following a not dissimilar path to the early years of the Third Reich (or the years immediately preceding them). Individual liberties have been limited and state power has been used to eliminate opposition. In Donald Trump's America we see overt nationalism backed by propaganda and simplistic sloganising ("Make America Great Again"). One of Hitler's first acts on taking power in 1933 was to withdraw Germany from the "League of Nations". Trump is also contemptuous of international cooperation bodies such as the UN and NATO. And scapegoating is Trump's natural way - Muslims and Mexicans as well as Democrats and Judges. </span></p>
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<p style="margin: 0px; line-height: normal; font-family: '.SF UI Text';"><span style="font-family: '.SFUIText';">The United Kingdom has a strongly nationalist Government and a Prime Minster who wishes to eliminate dissent. The 48% of the voters who voted against the proposal to eschew international cooperation and to leave the European Union are being told by the Prime Minister that they should come in line and by the propagandist pro-Brexit newspapers that support her that those who oppose her are "saboteurs". Theresa May has attempted to avoid parliamentary scrutiny and parliamentary debate and votes on this issue - though some of our parliamentarians and judiciary have managed to stop the worst excesses of this extreme political dirigisme (bordering on one-party dictatorship). The pro-Brexit vote was delivered by nationalist rhetoric (about "Sovereignty") and by a xenophobic anti-foreigner and (above all) anti-immigrant pitch. May's calling of an early General Election is clearly based on her wish further to entrench the power of her increasingly nationalistic one-Party state. This also extends to withdrawal from such bodies as the European Court of Human Rights</span></p><div><span style="font-family: '.SFUIText';"><br></span></div></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";">That democracy is under threat today in countries that previously had entrenched it is not in doubt - and this should be a warning. That some elected politicians, once they secure power, exercise it undemocratically is there for all to see. That scapegoats are sought and victimised has uncomfortable parallels with the past. That dissent is not allowed is also increasingly common. And that propaganda - usually delivered by compliant Media owners from "Fox News" to "The Sun", the "Daily Mail" and the rest - is insidiously employed to reinforce the governing hegemony is surely not in question. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: ".sfuitext";">After the Wall Street crash Germany plunged into darkness. Millions of dead and fifteen long years later she emerged, and was utterly determined to heed the warning from history that the Hitler years had been. The United Nations and institutions of international justice and political and economic partnership in Europe facilitated that progress. But others seem not to have heeded the warning in the same way - at least rectify. The nationalist and isolationist path on which America and Britain are launched is certainly as foolish as it is anachronistic. It could also be catastrophic. </span></div>
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Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-56174048911332927312017-02-11T14:06:00.000+00:002017-02-11T14:09:22.069+00:00My 100,000th Tweet !<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I have just sent my <i><b>100,000<sup>th</sup></b></i> Tweet. As I first tweeted
in May 2010 this means that there has been an average of 40 tweets (and
retweets) from me per day. Assuming that the tweets are on average 20 words in
length my tweets amount to 2 million words. This is more that “War and Peace”,
the Bible and “Lord of the Rings” together. Not a bad output in just over six
and a half years!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I could see that anyone unfamiliar with Twitter might find
this all a bit mad! <i>“How do you have the time?” </i>Well the answer is that if each
of my tweets takes me thirty seconds that is only twenty minutes a day. I scan
Twitter quite regularly and follow links from it a lot. That, for me, is
Twitter’s most valuable role. I believe that I am better informed by using Twitter as a gateway to other online sources. I tend to be “on Twitter” in “Down
time” – especially on a train or at an airport. I would accept, though, that I
read a bit less because I take part in social media. I still read a lot, but
not as much as the pre-Twitter days.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I also meet people on Twitter and feel that I know them. Of my
nearly 3800 followers I feel quite close to at least a couple of hundred few of
whom I’ve actually met. There is a camaraderie there which is very pleasing.
Over the last few months I have stopped following people whose views are antipathetic
to mine (with one or two exceptions). This is quite controversial but I take
the view that following 1900 people (as I do) is probably too many anyway and
why should my timeline be cluttered with people I fundamentally disagree with?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I am fairly open on social media. I use my real name and
with a couple of clicks anyone can find my full contact details. This has
caused no problems at all and I see no reason to operate behind a pseudonym.I get little spam and trolls avoid me mostly. I dont block people just because they disagree with me but I do if they are rude or exceptrionally stupid! I don't follow and often blo</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ck <a href="http://www.adweek.com/digital/default-white-egg-avatar/">Eggs</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So onwards to the next 100,000 ! And thanks to my followers
and those I follow for making Twitter worthwhile for me.</span></div>
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Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-56490665480359465472017-01-15T13:21:00.001+00:002017-01-15T13:21:39.745+00:00How the Daily Mail makes our green and pleasant land into a moral refuse tip<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I could have chosen a hundred or more (many more) tabloid front pages to make my point. Which is that thanks to those who finance and deliver this sort of illiberal, slanted, narrow, selfish garbage we have declined visibly as a nation.Not just from the fact that our citizens in large numbers read this stuff. But because it is far worse these days than it used to be and it has far greater effect.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The disaster of Brexit was in strong part a consequence of lies and biased half-truths spread by the tabloids. Every day there was a new edition and a new front page. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">That most of the headlines and the stories were patently untrue, as in the example above, became habitual. And that they appealed to prejudice hardly needs to be stated. There is a strong anti-EU Islamaphobia in Britain. Even though the EU has almost nothing to do with Islam and there are very few Muslims in Britain here as a consequence of the EU's "Freedom of Movement" rules. (British Muslims are, of course, overwhelmingly of New Commonwealth origins (from Pakistan and Bangladesh etc.) A week or so before the EU Referendum a man in Teddington High Street said within my hearing that he would be voting "Leave" because there are <i>"too many ****** Muslims here already".</i> There was a similar interview on Charlie Brooker's <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086khl3">BBC look back on 2016</a>. The canard that Turkey was going to join the EU and that, as the Daily Mail put it "1.5m Turks were coming to Britain" was an influence in the Referendum outcome. Think about this for a minute. Something that was patently untrue. Something that was promoted by the tabloid press. Something that was openly bigoted and biased. Something that appealed to prejudice and to xenophobia. That (maybe crucially) led to Britain quitting the European Union.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The British Government has its policy decided by public
opinion and that public opinion is substantially influenced by the tabloids.
"Freedom of Movement" within the EU is characterised as
"Immigration" by the tabloids and for a British Government (or Opposition)
to be seen as supporting immigration is the kiss of death. (The fact that the indivisible
“Four Freedoms” - the free movement of goods, capital, services, and people -
have been overwhelmingly positive for Britain as with the rest of the EU member
nations is ignored because one of the freedoms is seen as
"immigration").</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So our Government policy is being driven by lies and
prejudice, by ignorance and bigotry. Few politicians have the balls to stand up
for the Four Freedoms and those that do – Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke, Tim Farron
and a few others – become tabloid targets. And all of us, including these
courageously honest people, become the targets of the Mail and the rest: </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Back to today’s Mail front page at the top of this Blog.
This is classic stuff. The Hard Right is against Britain’s admirable Overseas Aid
policies. So they invent and idea that if we cut Aid we could rescue the NHS
(Does this sound familiar?). Its utter offensive nonsense of course but it will be believed.
Again. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And there you have an example of how
low we have sunk. Ignorant. Selfish. Nationalist. Xenophobic. Brutal. Not all
of us of course. Probably nor even a majority of us. But sufficient of us to change
this green and pleasant land into a refuse tip. And that hurts. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-47667443147295965102017-01-06T17:38:00.001+00:002017-01-06T17:39:11.377+00:00The threat of Fascism <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="color: red;">The above was about Trump and the USA. But closer to home it rings alarm bells. </span></h2>
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(1)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Brexit is an
overtly Nationalist proposition which turns its back on internationalism and
predicates "Taking back control". The proposal to withdraw from the
"European Court of Human Rights" is equally Nationalist as are the
planned restrictions on Freedom of Movement and many other plans of the May
Government.</div>
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(2) See (1)</div>
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(3) The European Union as a body and our current) 27
partners along with EU citizens working in Britain are among the many
scapegoats of the current Government stance.</div>
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(5) The<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>glass ceiling
is still in place and the Right has no plans to make significant change to the
roles and rewards of women.</div>
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(6) Elements of the Mass Media are firmly under control of
the Government/Media. The Telegraph, Mail, Sun and Express are under Right Wing
control and considerable untrammelled power still exists despite Leveson. Some would
argue that the BBC tows the Government line too often.</div>
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(7) The genuine threats from terrorism have brought
bombastic rhetoric and threats of restrictions to liberty.</div>
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(8) The Prime Minister has played the God card more than
once and she is clearly of the "We are a Christian country" mind-set.
Some on the Right are calling for more social conservatism.</div>
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(9) There are continued paeans to capitalism from many on
the Right and the Business sectors are being rewarded by the promise of less
regulation and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>more freedoms.</div>
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(10) There is an overt and determined anti-Union rhetoric
and action underway.</div>
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(11) Intellectuals are condemned by senior Conservatives who
decry experts and expertise. The Arts is characterised as "Luvvie"
and its public funding is being severely cut.</div>
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(13) The Honours Lists and the appointment of cronies to
sinecures continue unabated under Theresa May.</div>
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(14) No plans to reform a not fit for purpose electoral
system exist and the "EU Referendum" is held up as an example of democracy
at work - which it certainly was not.</div>
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<![endif]-->Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-17183714163540004712016-11-17T07:46:00.000+00:002016-11-17T07:46:19.970+00:00Normalising Trump? Don't worry he won't allow us to do it !<div>
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<a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-G0vOpYm1Ets/WC1f00UcbPI/AAAAAAAACqA/lhpyZJbaCN8/s640/blogger-image-886936150.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-G0vOpYm1Ets/WC1f00UcbPI/AAAAAAAACqA/lhpyZJbaCN8/s400/blogger-image-886936150.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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There is a danger of falling into the trap of believing Donald Trump can be normalised - like some sort of latter day Ronald Reagan. "Mr Trump is a big-government conservative" writes Tim Montgomerie in The Times today (perhaps with his fingers crossed). It sums up the dilemma up well. It is an oxymoron of course. Earlier this year, on holiday, I met a couple of Californans - rich, well-educated, articulate. One told me "Trump is a New York liberal". Another oxymoron. </div>
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The thing is that (as with Brexit) the people have been duped. Trump did it on his own (much of the GOP establishment shunned him) whereas the "Leave" campaign had the tabloid media on its side as well as a handful of charismatic proponents on the make. Hardly anyone who was honest and in their right mind backed Trump or Brexit unless, in the case of the latter, they were fulfilling a lifelong ambition. Here the analogy was with a football team. You stick with your team through thick and thin. If you're a lifelong Eurosceptic the same - you don't suddenly change just because the overwhelming evidence, supported by every rational authority, is that the UK would be mad to leave the EU.</div>
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Back to Trump. He had even less credible support than the Brexiteers. For good reason. Normally reliable Republican figures, media etc. did not support Donald Trump. He was a loner backed only by the extreme Right - including the Klu Klux Klan and Far Right white supremacists. And grotesque political failures like Gingrich and John Bolton (who will now get jobs). Now, of course, the Republican tribe is salivating at the prospect of one of theirs (sort of) in the White House.</div>
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Trump is a Bozo, a freak, a fool - an infantile clown who in any rational world would never be given any of the levers of political power. And indeed he hasn't been. No political experience at all. Uniquely so. (Incidentally Dwight Eisenhower is cited by some as being the only other political tyro in the White House - but you don't have Ike's military record without consummate political skills as well!).</div>
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Trump is not Ronald Reagan either. Ronnie was no fool or freak. He was not an egotist either (well no more than most actors). He employed good people. A capable decent Vice President. And he had genuine political experience. No liberal is a fan of Reaganomics, but it in hindsight had its merits. And even liberals can salute Reagan's charisma, leadership and decency.</div>
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Trump cannot last. His defective personality, pea-sized brain, and unpleasant friends will surely do for him. How and when, though, I've no idea. When cataclysmic political mistakes happen they often take a long time to unravel. Iraq anyone? When an Emporer has no clothes he can still strut on the stage for a while. But politics is tough and if you are unfit for a job (or, like Thatcher or Nixon have become unfit) then you are generally ousted one way or another. Before the inevitable happens to Trump all we can do is try and minimise his damage. </div>
Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-84876832121238208372016-11-13T10:13:00.002+00:002016-11-13T10:13:35.337+00:00Will the "Founding Fathers" restrain Trump's madness?<div>
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"<i>For almost a century in the west, democracy has meant liberal democracy: a political system marked not only by free and fair elections, but also by the rule of law, the separation of powers, the protection of basic liberties of speech, assembly, religion and property. In fact this latter bundle of freedoms-what might be called constitutional liberalism-is historically distinct from democracy. Today the two strands of liberal democracy, interwoven in the western political fabric, are coming apart in the rest of the world. Democracy is flourishing; constitutional liberalism is not."</i></div>
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The above, written in 1997 by Fareed Zakaria in Prospect Magazine, was part of an article which commented on what was seen as a trend in the growth of elective democracies unaccompanied by a parallel growth in constitutional liberalism. He explained:</div>
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" <i>'Suppose the election is declared free and fair,' said Richard Holbrooke on the eve of the 1996 elections in Bosnia, and those elected are “racists or fascists, publicly opposed to peace. That is the dilemma.” Indeed it is-not just in the former Yugoslavia, but around the world. Democratically elected regimes routinely ignore constitutional limits on their powers and deprive their citizens of basic rights. From Peru to the Palestinian Authority, from Sierra Leone to Slovakia, from Pakistan to the Philippines comes the rise of a disturbing phenomenon in international life-illiberal democracy."</i></div>
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The democratic election of those who later become tyrants is a historical phenomenon that is disturbingly common - notably with Hitler but also more recently with Marcos in The Philippines or Mugabe in Zimbabwe. Perhaps Vladimir Putin (the iffiness of Russian elections notwithstanding) is another. </div>
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Which brings us to Donald Trump. There are two problems. Was his election truly democratic ? Clinton won the popular vote by a substantial margin - only the archaic US electoral system denied her. The second question is will Trump do what he said he would do?</div>
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There is little merit in railing against the Electoral College. It's daft, designed for a different age but it can't be changed retrospectively. It applied to the 2016 election and that's it. </div>
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But what about Trump? He isn't a politician. His election platform and his speeches were rants full of impractical proposals. Some of it was bigoted, vile nonsense. It was certainly not "constitutionally liberal" If he attempts to implement half of it he will move into tyranny. He will certainly struggle to do this as the American constitution does have checks and balances from Congress and the Judiciary. The hands of the President are tied - the Founding Fathers were smart enough to see the need for this. No President has slipped into dictatorship - Richard Nixon (dysfunctional but not a tyrant) had to go.</div>
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The Trump election is a disaster. But I doubt that the American people have elected a man who will ride roughshod over democratic processes and checks and balances. Not because he might not like to, but because the Constitution won't let him. That said perhaps they said that about other elected tyrants ? 😱</div>
Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-21816516039515129162016-10-30T07:58:00.002+00:002016-10-30T07:58:30.943+00:00Britain. After 55 years seeking a role again.
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My hotel here in Dhaka is
in the diplomatic district of the city. Across the road construction work is
underway on a large new building which the boards outside reveal to be the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">“Franco German Embassy”.</b> No doubt the
rabid haters of all things European will feel that this initiative confirms
their worst fears. For if two nations which spent the first half of the
twentieth century fighting one another can now be sufficiently close that they share
an Embassy can the first “European Embassy” be far behind? Along with, of
course, the “European
Super State”
about which they so noisily complain. In the long term probably not, I would
think, and that’s something to cheer on not to jeer about.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The new Embassy is an overtly political symbol – though
there will be sound economic reasons as well. The costs of the construction and
operation of the Embassy will be shared – not least the costs of security. High
these days anywhere, but particularly so in Bangladesh. But the symbolism is
the real reason. If the French and the Germans share an Embassy that can only
be on the foundation of also sharing a foreign policy and the reality is that that
policy is not just theirs, but Europe’s as a
whole.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When you have a broad-based coalition of 28 sovereign states
there can’t be major differences of approach to international relations. The EU
is not just an economic union, it is a political one as well. And you cannot
have such a union if its member states disagree strongly with one another about
external affairs. That there is common interest across Europe is fairly
self-evident – even, I would argue, including the United Kingdom. Britain’s foolish and deadly adventure in Iraq, which was
not supported by any of our European partners, was a blip in pan-European
unity. But more than a decade later there is a greater spirit of cooperation
across the EU’s 28 member states and only insular and petty nationalism could
block the inevitability of “ever closer union”.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is nationalism in pockets across Europe
and that has led to the rise of parties of the extremes of Right and (in some
cases) Left. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is no room for
complacency about this – history teaches us that in times of difficulty the
extremes can prosper. The disadvantaged in America
who will vote for the simplistic, banal nationalism of Donald Trump are not far
removed from those who believed the snake oil of Britain’s United Kingdom
Independence Party (UKIP) and of the others who ran a disreputable and
xenophobic campaign during the EU Referendum earlier this year. Nationalism does
not just require the crude and maudlin portrayal of national symbols – the
flag, sentimental anthems, the currency, reverence for institutions like the
monarchy, nostalgia and reliving past glories –it also requires scapegoats.
These are, of course, people and institutions that are external to the core of
the nation and its history and who can be blamed for its ills. For Trump it’s
Muslims and Mexicans (etc.). For UKIP and its fellow travellers it is the
European Union, as an entity, and its officials as individuals – and, of
course, foreigners in general and immigrants in particular. And for Hitler it
was the Jews. Any study of the malevolence of Nationalism is also a study of
bigotry, prejudice, intolerance and chauvinism. Patriotism is the veneer which
barely disguises Nationalism. That patriotism is the “last refuge of a
scoundrel”, as Samuel Johnson put it, we have evidence in abundance in Britain in
2016. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The opposite of Nationalism is Internationalism. That
principle lay at the heart of Churchill’s call in 1946 <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">“… to re-create the European Family… and provide it with a structure
under which it can dwell in peace, in safety and in freedom. We must build a
kind of United States of Europe.”</i> That is precisely what the European Union
has done and is doing. This does not mean a Federal Europe and certainly not a
“Super State” – except perhaps in the very long
term. But it does mean closer union and also to a post-NATO European Defence
Force as guarantor of the “peace and safety”. That the United Kingdom
has chosen to be outside of this progress is distressing – the wrong decision,
made for the wrong reasons at the wrong time. Churchill did not see Britain as being part of his united Europe – but
that was a different Britain.
In 1946 we were still Imperial Britain, a “Great Power” and the United States’
closest ally. None of that now applies. And when in 1962 Dean Acheson said <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">“Great Britain has lost an Empire
and has not yet found a role” </i>he was pointing to this emerging reality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The answer to the question of what Britian’s ideal post-Imperial
role would be was arguably clear just before Acheson said what he said. In 1961
The UK applied to be a member of the then “European
Economic Community”. At the time Macmillan acknowledged that the
EEC was more than “just” an economic entity. He said:</span></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“This is a political as well as an economic issue. Although the Treaty
of Rome is concerned with economic matters it
has an important political objective, namely, to promote unity and stability in
Europe which is so essential a factor in the
struggle for freedom and progress throughout the world”</span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By applying for EEC membership the UK’s
post-Imperial role was effectively being prescribed. It was to be, along with Germany and France, one of the leaders in a
United Europe. This may well be why General de Gaulle initially rebuffed the
application! But in a few years time, and post de Gaulle, the UK took its rightful place (many would say)
among the leaders of the new Europe.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In a parallel world the new Embassy in Dhaka
would be the “British Franco German Embassy” – a reflection of the progress
made in European cooperation and of the tripartite drivers of it. Fanciful? No
more so than the reality of the “Franco German Embassy” surely. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But now what? It took fifteen years for Britain to realise that to be part of the new Europe – indeed to be a key player in building it – was
the right thing to do. Fifty-five years later, with much of the hard work of
unification having been done and (especially) with democratic intuitions having
been successfully introduced, we have decided to walk away. To what? Well
nobody knows – least of all the Government wrestling with the enormity of what
we’ve done. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The clock cannot be rolled
back to 1946, or indeed to 1961. This is a Club which once you’ve left you
can’t rejoin. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is no Bliss in this new dawn to be alive, and for the young
especially it is very hell. It was the meagre, stale, forbidding ways which got
us here and the false and nationalistic “attraction” of a country in romance
with its past. Sadly Reason failed to assert her rights. She was lost to the
forces that would not go forward in her name. </span></div>
Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-19496176234783555112016-10-24T09:46:00.000+01:002016-10-24T10:32:26.132+01:00A pardon for Alan Turing? It's not a simple as it might seem.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">The issue over a pardon for Alan Turing and those similarly convicted of homosexual "offences" is more complex than some think. At any one moment in time we have laws. People are convicted under these laws and punished. Sometimes these convictions turn out to be unsafe and sometimes this only becomes apparent happens a long time after the event. The Timothy Evans or the Birmingham Bomb case for example. Here the pardons were made because of wrongful conviction - which they were. In effect the pardons overturned the convictions and made those convicted officially innocent in the eyes of the law (not much help to Mr Evans, sadly). <br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />The case of Alan Turing (etc.) is different. Nobody is saying his conviction was unsafe. He was correctly convicted under the law of the day. Nobody disputes that. So it would be inappropriate to pardon him because of wrongful conviction. <br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />Alan Turing and many others were convicted of transgressing against laws then on the Statute Book which are no longer on that book. We have in the last fifty years had a raft of social legislation which has liberalised our society. Among these has been the decriminalisation of homosexuality. What Turing was convicted as having done would today not be a crime. <br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />Today's generation has assumed it has the right to criticise the illiberality of previous generations. That's fine by me - and there's plenty to criticise. Slavery. Institutionalised discrimination against minorities. Dangerous employment practises. You name it the past was a tough old place. But that's how it was. <br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />Alan Turing was rightfully convicted under what we now believe to have been an unjust law. Today's mores and values and sense of what is right or wrong - and the laws which surround them - are different from those of 70 years ago. I think that we have advanced as a society as a consequence. Not everyone agrees - although as far as the decriminalisation of homosexuality is concerned few would argue that this change was anything other than desirable. <br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />We have a sense of guilt about what happened to Turing. But it is not guilt about our own actions but about those of a previous generation and the society that then existed. So what, if anything, should we do about it ? The usual requirement for a pardon (wrongful conviction) does not apply. It is frankly nonsense to argue (as some are doing) that because someone was convicted of an offence in 1952 that would not be an offence in 2016 he should therefore be pardoned. <br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />If we choose to pardon Alan Turing (et al) we should be very clear about why we are doing it. Because we believe ourselves to be more virtuous than our parents or grandparents is not a reason. Nor is it a good reason that Turing was a great man and that his life story has been well told in a fine movie. The failed Bill proposed by the SNP did not do that for me. If the Government bill does (as the pardon of those convicted and executed under Courts Martial during the Great War did) then I will welcome it. But, as I say, it's more complex than it might seem to be.</span><br />
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<span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><span style="color: red;"><i><b>Addendum </b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Since posting this it has been pointed out to me that <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/royal-pardon-for-ww2-code-breaker-dr-alan-turing">Alan Turing has already been pardoned </a>and that this is about also pardoning similarly convicted men. I had forgotten that. Checking on the reasons given at the time (2013) for Turing's pardon they are as follows: <br /> <br />"The
Justice Secretary has the power to ask the Queen to grant a pardon
under the Royal Prerogative of Mercy, for civilians convicted in England
and Wales. <br /> <br />A pardon is only normally granted when the person
is innocent of the offence and where a request has been made by someone
with a vested interest such as a family member. Uniquely on this
occasion a pardon has been issued without either requirement being met,
reflecting the exceptional nature of Alan Turing’s achievements." <br /> <br />The
"uniquely" didn't last long. And the reasons given (Turing's
"achievements" and the "exceptional nature" of them) were highly
questionable to say the least. And they do not apply to others for whom
it is now proposed a pardon be granted. The can of worms is open... </span><br />
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Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-49338418806571678792016-10-19T10:06:00.001+01:002016-10-19T11:14:27.205+01:00When the Nationalists take power...<div>
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A senior EU offcial confirmed that there is only one viable exit option - if the UK is no longer to be part of the EU, and if it will not seek the "Norway" status, then "Hard Brexit" is the only way. </div>
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Norway is not an EU member but it has Freedom of Movement and is in the Single Market. The two are indivisible. This is an odd situation as the country has the benefits/problems of both policies without being in a position to affect the policies. But Norway accepts it.</div>
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The UK will not accept Freedom of Movement not because we don't benefit from it (we clearly do) but because it is a political line which cannot be crossed. Our electorate voted against the UK's membership of the UK because they equated that membership's "Freedom of Movement" obligations with "immigration" - which they don't like. (I simplify, but that was the bottom line).</div>
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Everything follows on from the political "bottom line" I describe. If that line cannot be crossed for fear of the electorate's response then "Soft Brexit" is no longer an option. </div>
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We are cutting off our noses to spite our faces. Brexit will set Britain back for decades. And all because a foolish man thought he could defeat his opponents on the Tory Right /UKIP with a reasoned and internationalist argument. History should have taught him that Nationalism has a powerful appeal to those who think that they are disadvantaged. And we all know what happens when nationalists take power...</div>
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Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-84825338898863506052016-10-16T08:50:00.001+01:002016-10-16T12:47:01.414+01:00Freedom of Movement within the EU is not "immigration"<div>
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Freedom of Movement within the EU is not "immigration". The myth that it is heavily influenced the outcome of the EU Referendum and is still being circulated by those opposed to the UK remaining a signatory to free trade in Europe. </div>
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The core principle of economic alliances is the free movement of the factors of production - including labour. You can't pick and choose. If you want free movement of (say) capital free movement of labour comes with it. And free trade, the removal of barriers to the movement of goods also demands open borders - open to goods, capital, enterprise and people. </div>
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Freedom of Movement of labour in the EU means that job seeking and employment has no national boundaries. It is, however, subject to the normal economic forces of supply and demand. If there is demand there will be supply. And the intersection of the supply and demand curves will give you the price. That price in the U.K. is regulated by minimum wage legislation. The legal employment of non British EU nationals is subject to the same laws as the employment of Brits is. There is no "cheap labour from Europe". (That there is illegal employment is a matter for the Police and is irrelevant to this discussion). </div>
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Those EU nationals working here have not, in the main, migrated. They are Guest Workers doing a job, paying their taxes, consuming goods and services etc. Their net contribution to the economy is heavily positive. In time most of them will move on - back to their home country or elsewhere. The laws of supply and demand apply. Our economy relies on the availability (supply) of labour, capital and enterprise. The wider the source of all of these the better. The lower the costs and the higher the quality and the greater the choice.</div>
Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-7309176234266707032016-10-07T08:59:00.001+01:002016-10-07T16:24:35.282+01:00For the Tory Right UKIP have been useful fools - crucial in securing their victory.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: '.SFUIText';">There is a cool, intellectually robust and factually undeniable article in "The Economist" today which states the reality that Freedom of Movement within the EU is strongly beneficial to the UK. And yet Nigel Farage who Paul Goodman praises today on the ConHome website (properly in the Lords - OMG !!) and his brother in crime Stephen Woolfe were the ones believed in the EU Referendum. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: '.SFUIText';">Without question it was the lies of these and other doleful Kippers who secured the Tory Right their victory. There were a few unconvincing complaints from some Conservatives about the bigotry and mendacity of Mr Banks, Mr Woolfe and Farage. But most of them knew that every vile poster brought a "Leave" victory nearer and that the grubby means justified the ends. And those ends were, of course, the Thatcherites back in power for the first time since 1990. (I use the shorthand "Thatcherite" for want of a better descriptor. It's not wholly accurate as it was only in her sad demented final years that the blessed Margaret segued to where it seems Mrs May is heading now).</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: '.SFUIText';">UKIP has been a vile scourge on the body politic. To the Tory Right they have been useful fools but they have been crucial in securing the victory. No wonder on ConHome and elsewhere they are treated kindly. The extent of the plotting and the intrigue between fellow travellers across (nominally) the party lines (Carswell and Hannan, for example) may emerge in time. The short lived call for UKIP/Conservative electoral pacts pushed by some of the faithful (Toby Young, for example) got nowhere because it was realised it wasn't necessary. Just let the Kippers do the dirty work, stand at a distance and the prize will fall into your hands. Clever. Very clever...</span></span></div>
Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-31279470137493275952016-10-01T18:41:00.000+01:002016-10-01T18:46:35.732+01:00Labour sucked into a rather trivial Grammar School debate - but whatabout the Brexit chaos?<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
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Theresa May has expressed a view that approval should be given to the creation of new Grammar Schools. It is not Government policy and many Conservstives are opposed to the idea including previous Education Secretary Nicky Morgan. </div>
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Of the approximately 3100 state secondary schools 163 (5%) are Grammar Schools. In some areas they play a significant part in the state system - the county of Kent has 33 for example. But overwhelmingly the state system is comprehensive. This means that they do not select their pupils and are open to all children irrespective of ability. A Grammar school is a secondary school that is selective on ability at 11+ - that is its distinctive feature.</div>
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You might think that the addition of a few more Grammar schools to the few that exist is hardly a matter to take to the streets about. Even if the number of such schools doubled (very unlikely) it would only have a small effect on Britain's education system. Whether that effect on the margin would be good or bad depends on your view as to whether or not it is beneficial for a small percentage of our schools to be selective. However there is no general threat to the principle of comprehensive education. </div>
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So what is going on and why is Labour in protest mode? It's rather like the protests against the so-called "privatisation" of the National Health Service. The NHS is not being privatised - although the process of contracting out and competitive tendering started by a Labour Government is continuing. But the NHS remains a publicly owned system staffed overwhelmingly by public employees. </div>
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We are in "thin end of the wedge" territory here with education and with the NHS. More grammars and more contracting out in the NHS, although minor in themselves in the short or medium term, could indicate trends that are "undesirable". Selection in secondary education, and more involvement of the private sector in the Health Service. However the reality is that the massive edifices that are our Education system and our Health Service would take more than a bit of tinkering on the margins (for that is what it is) to change. Do we really seriously believe that the Government really wants to reintroduce selection on a major scale in education or dilute the principle of our NHS being publicly owned? Apart from anything else there is no mandate as there was no manifesto commitment for either.</div>
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So what is going on here? It's politics innit? The accusation that there is "segregation" in education planned is disingenuous. And note the use that most emotive of words - "segregation" - with its awful intimations of apartheid and institutionalised discrimination.</div>
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The utter confusion of Theresa May and her Government over Brexit is an existential crisis of unprecedented proportions. The recent Labour Party Conference only briefly discussed this in plenary session as they chose to unveil their domestic left wing agendas - on the NHS and Education (among other things). But Labour does not look like a Government in waiting but under Jeremy Corbyn it has become a protest movement. It's an abrogation of their duty as Her Majesty's Opposition. </div>
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Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-19230601387509164562016-09-14T10:11:00.002+01:002016-09-14T10:11:49.871+01:00When David Cameron's luck finally ran out<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Cameron arrived unknown at the top, he didn't "rise
without trace" as someone once said about David Frost. He didn't rise at
all. He parachuted in. After Hague (bad), IDS (terrible) and Howard
(unelectable and very nasty) a neophyte was worth a try. He brought no
experience, no discernible ideology and he had never had a proper job. (Carlton
was a sinecure). He was young, a good fluent public speaker, academically
sound, well connected, rich, had a nice wife (Tories like that) and marketable.
But it was a veneer. A thin layer with only chipboard beneath. Before he became
leader did he ever write or say anything that anybody noticed? He did not. He
was in the right place at the right time and, until now, the luck he had then
had held. But when they fall they really do fall - especially the
Conservatives. Even the blessed Margaret.</div>
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It was the right time to be Leader of the Opposition post
the 2005 General Election. It was clear that Blair would have to hand over to
the much more vulnerable Brown soon. He did. And lucky Dave was in place as the
Brown years became more difficult. Hindsight is already giving Brown credit for
what he did as PM and as the most impressive and effective international crisis
leader in those difficult times. But he was an easy target, could not rely on
personal popularity and by 2010 he should have been slaughtered. But Dave
botched it. The LibDem deal was clever and Cameron's luck kept running because
Nick Clegg quite liked the idea of power. The Dave and Nick show was a fraud on
the British public, but it had legs.</div>
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Cameron did nothing in his first term. All was about winning
properly in 2015. The brilliant Lynton Crosby set it all up. Buy off the Tory
Right with the Referendum pledge. Go hard on the LibDems. Get the media to
rubbish Ed Miliband. Let Cameron appear sincere and authoritative. But first
win the Scottish referendum of course. Lucky Dave had the rise of the SNP to
thank for destroying Labour in Scotland. But on the other hand this rise oh so
nearly delivered Scottish independence. Had this happened Cameron would have
gone. But the Scots lost their nerve (just!) and lucky Dave won again. And in
2015 Crosby delivered the perfect outcome for the Tory Right. The Coalition
gone and the Referendum planned to happen.</div>
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After the 2015 General Election Dave needed his luck to hold
for one more push. To win the EU Ref should have been easy. The case for
"Remain" was indisputable. But Dave couldn't sell it to his own
troops let alone in the country. The Tory Right plotted and plotted. Labour
imploded. "Leave" had the vile Farage/Banks campaign to appeal to the
fearful and the ignorant. The Tory Right watched it all with glee. Unexpectedly
their tactic of assuming power with Boris as their chosen leader looked achievable.
Dave could be toast! And he was. The Tory Right stumbled and had to accept May
not Boris - but they still won. The most brilliant coup in modern British
politics succeeded and Cameron bit the dust. He's history. And that's the end
of it. A victim in the end of his luck running out.</div>
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Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-66863061793369418262016-09-09T17:30:00.001+01:002016-09-09T17:30:22.719+01:00Will there be room on the Right for "UKIP Mark 2" ?<div>Corbyn has taken over the Labour Party as defined by its (substantially new) member base. Momentum has been part of the Deus ex machina which has allowed this to happen. But "his" Members of Parliament do not support him (a few excepted) and nor do any but a minority of previous Labour voters. There is no credible scenario which could ever see Corbyn in 10 Downing Street. </div><div><br></div><div>Meanwhile in the Conservative Party the Right has won. The EU Referendum and Brexit were never ends in themselves but means to the end of getting rid of Cameron/Osborne and launching a right wing "neo-liberal" agenda. The original plan was for Boris Johnson to be the Prime Minister. Read the Conservative Home website or The Spectator over the past few years if you doubt this. When Johnson stumbled the wholly unsuited Andrea Leadsom was briefly drafted in. Johnson or Leadsom would have been puppets of the Right who would have called all the tunes. But Leadsom was clearly inadequate and so, in the end, the Right had to accept Theresa May. She is not "one of us" (in Thatcher's phrase) but she is not really one of anybody. No ideologue of Left or Right she. A pragmatist through and through.</div><div><br></div><div>The coming months will show whether the Right can tighten their grip on May. The Grammar School irrelevance is a sign they are succeeding. This is pure UKIP. A nostalgia for a past which pre-dates Thatcher. But it's Brexit which is the key. May has already tried to show that she is not for turning on the issue. (Her own support for "Remain" was lukewarm and self-interested - she clearly expected Cameron to win). However it is already clear that Brexit would be disastrous for Britain. The complexity and costs of withdrawal are mind-blowing and the distraction to normal governance extraordinary. The Right knows this and doesn't care. Their plans for Britain demand that the regulations and checks and balances provided by EU membership be removed. May will have either (1) Have to go along with this or (2) Fight to find a solution for Britain which keeps the status quo, whilst honouring the referendum result. Not easy!</div><div><br></div><div>If May, the ultimate pragmatist, does (1) then UKIP is dead in the water. She will have stolen all their clothes and the only room to the Conservatives' Right will be for some posturing. Arron Banks may seek to do this but he won't get anywhere. However if May chooses (2) then the cry will be "betrayal" and Banks/Farage (and Gove, Carswell, Hannan and Co.) will </div><div>counter attack. It won't be pretty! </div>Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-69817429701725375362016-09-05T08:58:00.000+01:002016-09-05T16:20:16.851+01:00Can Theresa May be a One Nation conservative PM ?<span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Macroeconomic management to be competent requires income and expenditure to be managed co-jointly. Statement of the obvious but how often do Chancellors single-mindedly look at only one side of the P&L ? Some Governments, usually Conservative ones, focus on public sector spending. Some, usually Labour, focus on where (in their judgment) our money needs to be spent. Over all of this hovers politics. And elections. Politics is the Art of the Possible. <br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">The disintegration of Labour, the disappearance of UKIP post Farage, the fact that it will take the LibDems years to rebuild all give Theresa May a great chance to do what is right. To be a One Nation Conservative. That means ignoring the strident ideological pressure of the likes of the Tax Payers Alliance and their bedfellows. This is not a time for tax cuts and certainly not a time for cuts for the rich! Some tweaking maybe on the margins and hopefully some recognition that direct taxation can be progressive </span><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"> whilst indirect taxation is regressive. But no major changes to the tax system and current levels are called for. </span><div><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">At today's low interest rates borrowing to fund investment is prudent and necessary. Projects like HS2 and Heathrow expansion, Social Housing (huge need) etc. should be proceeded with. The collateral benefits in respect of employment and economic Growth are obvious. <br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Every area of public spending should have Cost/Benefit Analysis applied to it. Our new place in the world post Brexit needs to be understood. Leave grandiose projects like Trident to the big boys of Europe and the US. We have chosen to disengage - that does not and cannot mean some return to the idea that we are a Great Power again. Our Defence expenditure must reflect this. Cut it further. <br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">The NHS is under pressure and as we all age and live longer it will be more do. Costs of healthcare per capita in the UK are not particularly high compared with other advanced countries. I have written <a href="http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/paddy-briggs-im-a-fabian-and-i-believe-its-wrong-to-claim-that-the-conservatives-are-privatising-the-nhs.html">here</a> about how the NHS must be a public/private partnership. It already is and that is not going to change, nor should it. But we must avoid listening to the ideology driven claptrap of Right and Left. The NHS must not be a political football. We need an urgent recognition that a healthy nation is not just a moral responsibility for Gocernment but a pragmatic one. That means above all an efficient NHS. It's a huge task and maybe in future some new funding models are necessary. But we have long since chosen to have free healthcare at point of use - there must be no taxing of the sick. We need an agreement involving all stakeholders about the NHS. Not forgetting patients ! <br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">I fear that Mrs May's unassailable position will put her under pressure from the Right to cut public expenditure indiscriminately and to provide rewards for Business and High Earners. It's happened before! One Nation Conservatism is due a revival. But you've got to be clear about what that truly means. The Right has one cataclysmic victory to chalk up with Brexit. Mrs May must not give them any more.</span></div>Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-67693573143961260142016-09-03T08:12:00.000+01:002016-09-03T08:12:58.065+01:00You've got to love the Greens - but they can be very silly at times!<div>
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I like the Green Party. I have voted Green once or twice and would do so again. They deserve many more members in our Parliament and I hope they get them. To me part of their appeal is that they can be charmingly bonkers at times. And their decision to job-share their leadership is an example of this !<br />
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The overlap between party and personality/character at the top of politics is obvious. The political brand is underpinned (or damaged) by the public perception of the leader. David Cameron was not a particularly popular figure at the time of the 2015 General Election but he didn't need to be. He just needed to be perceived as better than Ed Milliband by a sufficient number of people to win. He was. He won. He was hugely helped by a popular media which destroyed Milliband's campaign. In my view Ed was worth ten David Camerons but that's not how, on the margin, the floating voter saw it.</div>
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Strong, credible leaders are the vital asset that political parties strive for. In my lifetime, in their very different ways, Attlee, Churchill, Macmillan, Wilson, Thatcher and Blair were such leaders. They did not (as Cameron did) win by default. They won because of what they were perceived to be. They led their parties and added value to them. </div>
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In modern times the phenomenon of the leader adding value to the party has also been seen with Nigel Farage and UKIP. The Farage story is a very uncomfortable one for those of us who despise all he stands for. But for UKIP to "win" the last EU Elections, secure 4m votes in 2015 and to be the crucial factor in the EU Referendum is almost entirely attributable to Farage. Without him UKIP will struggle to be anything like the force they have been.</div>
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Back to the Greens. They are analogous with UKIP as a small party trying to break through when the electoral system is stacked against them. Their only chance is to find a Farage. Not a dysfunctional, bigoted Nasty like him of course, but someone with his vote-gathering potential. The core proposition of the Greens is a marketable one - but it has to be sold. A charismatic, credible leader could do this. But there must be focus. The public must not be confused as to who is in charge. To have the party leader as a "job share" just cannot to that. Can you imagine the two creators of New Labour (Blair and Brown) sharing the leadership job? Of course not. </div>
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As I said I like the Greens. But they do have a predisposition, at times, to silliness. To have their leadership as a job share is very silly indeed! </div>
Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21492975.post-14791221298037194702016-08-31T18:51:00.001+01:002016-08-31T19:39:36.937+01:00In the battle of ideologies it's no contest. The Tory Right will beatthe Corbyn cult hands down<div>
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The misconception on which the Corbyn cult is founded is that ideology equals intellect. It doesn't. Politics is the "Art of the Possible" and those of true political intellect understand this. But even this isn't enough. To succeed you need intellect, cunning and pragmatic plans far more than you need ideology!<br />
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David Cameron had no ideology at all - far from being a disadvantage in modern politics. But even this most pragmatic of men failed because the (apparently) nakedly ideologically driven opposition to him on the Conservative Right were cleverer than he was. They set a trap. Baited it. And Dave took the bait. The Eurosceptic Right attacked Cameron relentlessly over Europe until they got their way and secured a manifesto commitment to a referendum. Then they beavered behind the scenes with their brother in arms Lynton Crosby in situ for the 2015 General Election. The main, though largely undeclared, objective was to kill the Liberal Democrats. This gave Cameron a raft of handy new MPs as well as ensuring that there was no need for another Coalition. Once the Conservatives had a working majority then the Referendum could be held and the Right could ensure they won it.<br />
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Is Euroscepticism an ideology and are its fervent adherents members of a cult in the same way that Jeremy Corbyn's are? Up to a point. But if <b style="font-style: italic;">deep down </b>the real goal was the defeat of one Tory tribe (the Cameroons) and its replacement by another then even the withdrawal of the U.K. from the EU can be seen as a means to an end rather than an end in itself. The tribe of the Right care more about the defeat of socialism and of the welfare state than they do about Europe. But Europe, with its human rights commitments and its social legislation and regulation could stymie even a democratically elected UK Conservative government which wanted free enterprise reform. The triumph of Capitalism could be denied by the EU - so the EU had to go.</div>
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Is Capitalism an ideology? Again up to a point, but it is also liberal in the sense that, in its purest form, it is <b><i>anti rules </i></b>. Look at the recent writings of Daniel Hannan MEP and you will see eulogies to capitalism and competition that are almost religious in their fervour. Pressure groups like the "Tax Payers Alliance" and other Right Wing "think tanks" were all pro "Leave" in the EU Referendum. The front of all these people was superficially ideological - Euroscepticism. But the real goal was to create a profoundly more neo-liberal Britain.</div>
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Back to Jeremy Corbyn. He and the Tory Right have a lot in common. They both want their party to shift away from the centre so that they can radically change our society and our economic and political construct. The Corbynites have the ideology alright - classic socialism from the Left Wing handbook. Public ownership. Anti militarism. Tax the rich. Empower the people through the trades union movement and do on. But as I say above this is ideological but it's ignores the reality that you have to be electable. If you agree with my analysis of how the EU Referendum was won you have to admit it was clever. There were clues if you looked for them but the removal of Cameron was achieved with cunning and intellect. It's not yet quite complete but Theresa May is surely well to the right of Cameron and unlikely to be picked off by the Tory Right in the same way that he was.</div>
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So that's the scene. The Conservative right are one small push away from power. Brexit will remove the inconvenience of foreigners telling us what to do. Theresa May will do our bidding because now she's in Number 10 she'd like to stay there. Labour is a shambles and no sort of threat. Daniel dog and his friends will surely have his day, and a great many more. Will it be a triumph of ideology - of course it will. But by stealth not by rallies and slogans. Jeremy Cirbyn will have been comprehensively outsmarted by some much cleverer people than he !</div>
Paddy Briggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17847108655078927970noreply@blogger.com0