Thursday, June 11, 2015

Lucky Dave could stop the Eurosceptics, and for that at least we should be grateful.

In an article in The Times today Tim Montgomerie praises David Cameron - not something that comes naturally to him! Fair's fair! In my view Cameron has been lucky - but then Napoleon (and Montgomery) wanted lucky Generals above all else. His is the Tale of Two Referenda. The Scottish one destroyed Labour's power base in Scotland completely. This was luck for Dave, he can claim no credit for it. Labour fought an honourable and right campaign for a "No" vote in Scotland - won, and were punished for their victory. It really was an astonishing fall from grace. And Cameron was the main beneficiary as Tim correctly points out.

And the EU Referendum? Well here Dave has used his unexpected strength to play a political game Machiavelli , or his representative on Planet Earth Peter Mandelson, would have been proud of! The "Outers" are probably a majority in the Parliamentary party. The Fury of the Hannans and their ilk at the moment is palpable. (Even Tim and the ConHome lot are fuming, albeit slightly more rationally than the Hannanites). As ever the Europhobic wing of the Party is an existential threat. But Dave has power and patronage. A new MP with hopes for a job won't want to blot his/her copybook. The payroll vote will mostly do what they are told. Boris is mumbling but will come into line. We all, from both sides of the EU debate, know that the "negotiations" are all smoke and mirrors. There will be a bit of window dressing signifying little, but capable of being sold as a good outcome for Britain. And Dave will sell it. End of Story!

A few short weeks ago a united Labour Party seemed to be en route for victory. Even Dave thought so - and had written the speech. But the Great British People (GBP) thought otherwise. They probably surprised themselves with what they did. Dave was the least worst choice - he still is. The GBP has got over its flirtation with the shallow and frankly lightweight souls of UKIP. Farage has had his day. Labour is leaderless and all the old Blairite v Brownite battles are being fought anew. And Teflon Dave smiles his way onwards and upwards. And if he delivers an emphatic "Yes" vote in the EU referendum even this ageing Fabian will settle for that !


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